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A Look Inside the Numbers: Coco Crisp
By Administrator | January 28, 2006
So now that the Red Sox and Indians have consummated the deal, what do the numbers portend for Coco Crisp now that he will be playing 81 games at Fenway Park?
The Red Sox obviously see something in Crisp that others don’t… thus their willingness to trade away one of baseball’s top 5 minor league prospects in exchange. Many of the pundits thought the Red Sox gave up too much for Crisp… so is this a case where the Red Sox overpaid because they were left standing at the altar by Johnny Damon?
Not necessarily.
First of all, we know what Covelli Crisp IS… over the last two years, in nearly 1100 at bats, Crisp has hit .299 with 31 HR, 140 RBI, 35 SB and a .456 Slugging Pct.
But a look beyond Crisp’s overall statistics provides a more interesting perspective on what Crisp might BECOME… he is only 26 years old. His BA, OBP and Slug Pct have all improved each year since he became a full-timer in 2003.
And notably, in 2005, in nearly an identical number of at bats, Crisp was a far inferior hitter at Jacobs Field (the Indians home park) than he was on the road:
Overall: .300, 16 HR, 69 RBI, 15 SB, a .345 OBP and a .465 Slug Pct
At home: .275, 4, 30, 5 (.319 OBP / .409 Slug Pct)
On the road: .323, 12, 39, 10 (.370 OBP / .518 Slug Pct)
So the splits indicate that he may thrive away from Cleveland… not surprising since Jacobs Field is considered to be a PITCHER’s PARK — the third worst park for hitters in all of major league baseball — the worst in the AL — according to statistical analysis performed by The Sporting News. (NOTE: Fenway Park is considered to be a HITTER’s PARK — the seventh BEST park in MLB / 4th best in the AL… while Yankee Stadium is considered to be a NEUTRAL PARK — 17th of 30 parks for offensive production)
What does all of that mean? In short, that Crisp’s offensive number were deflated by playing in Cleveland the last few years… while Johnny Damon’s numbers were inflated by playing in Boston. Starting in 2006, those ballpark influences will change dramatically for the better for Crisp… while changing significantly for the worse for Damon.
Meanwhile, Crisp is 26 yo while Damon is 33 yo… Crisp will make $2.5 - $3 million in 2006 while Damon is making $13 million / year. Both players are both under the control of their respective teams for four more years.
Crisp makes the Red Sox a lot younger… and since when did the Red Sox look to get younger (rhetorical question… answer: since Theo was able to assert HIS organizational philosophy). He is at least equal to Damon defensively with a superior arm (of course, I have a superior arm). Damon is the superior baserunner.
The Red Sox essentially traded Renteria and cash for Crisp (Mota was a throw in from Florida in the Beckett deal)… and the cash consideration given to Cleveland is offset by the reduced contract. Julian Tavarez was signed to replace Mota in anticipation that Mota would be flipped… so no great loss there.
Sometimes the mark of great management is its ability to make lemonade out of lemons.
Prediction: Crisp will become a favorite here in Boston VERY quickly. He is intense. He is self-assured. He wants to win. He is cut from the cloth of Jason Varitek and Trot Nixon — although with a bit more swagger.
Lemonade, anyone?
Topics: Sox Players |
