Around Baseball: NLCS Matchup Is Set — Los Angeles v Philadelphia |

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Around Baseball: NLCS Matchup Is Set — Los Angeles v Philadelphia

By Administrator | October 5, 2008

The Philadelphia Phillies have advanced to the National League Championship Series for the first time since 1983, courtesy of this afternoon’s 6-2 win over the Milwaukee Brewers. As a result, the Phils will face the LA Dodgers (who completed a sweep of the Chicago Cubs last night in Los Angeles) to see which team will advance to the 2008 World Series.

The NLCS Schedule (with anticipated pitching matchups)

Th, 10/9 - Game 1, in Phila (LHP Cole Hamels v RHP Derek Lowe)
Fr, 10/10 - Game 2, in Phila (RHP Brett Myers v RHP Chad Billingsley)
Su, 10/12 - Game 3, in LA (LHP Jamie Moyer v RHP Hiroki Kuroda)
Mo, 10/13 - Game 4, in LA (RHP Joe Blanton v RHP Greg Maddux)
We, 10/15 - Game 5*, in LA (LHP Cole Hamels v RHP Derek Lowe)
Fr, 10/17 - Game 6*, in Phila (RHP Brett Myers v RHP Chad Billingsley)
Sa, 10/18 - Game 7*, in Phila (LHP Jamie Moyer v RHP Hiroki Kuroda)

* if necessary

The 2008 Regular Season

Philadelphia had the second-best record in the National League in 2008 (92-70)… and while most fans know that the Dodgers had an outstanding month of September (17-8), what most fans don’t know is that the Phillies had the exact same record in the season’s final month.

RECORDS
HOME / ROAD / TOTAL
PHI 49w - 32l / 41w - 40l / 90w - 72l
LAD 48w - 33l / 36w - 45l / 84w - 78l
Head-to-head results: PHI 4 wins, LAD 4 wins
Each team swept the other team in their home ballpark

OFFENSE
RUNS AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+
PHI 799 .255 .332 .438 .770 103
LAD 700 .264 .333 .399 .732 95

PITCHING
RUNS AVG OBP SLG OPS ERA+
PHI 680 .260 .329 .410 .739 115
LAD 648 .251 .315 .376 .691 120

The Matchups

Catcher

Russell Martin, LA… regular season: .280/.385/.396… playoffs: .308/.357/.769
Martin caught a league-leading 149 games this season (tied with Jason Kendall of Milwaukee)… his offense and defense have remained relatively steady, though his power and production were down significantly this year.

Carlos Ruiz, PHI… regular season: .219/.320/.300… playoffs: .071/.133/.071
Fans in Boston have complained about Jason Varitek’s offense woes over the last couple of years, but this guy makes ‘Tek look like Mickey Mantle at the plate. A solid defensive catcher.

ADVANTAGE: Los Angeles

First Base

James Loney, LA… regular season: .289/.338/.434… playoffs: .214/.214/.500
Hits for a decent batting average, but not a ton of power for a corner infielder… more relevant to this series is that he has struggled to hit lefties consistently (.249/.303/.361), so don’t be surprised to see Joe Torre use Nomar Garciaparra in a platoon role at first (as he did late in the regular season).

Ryan Howard. PHI… regular season: .251/.339/.543… playoffs: .182/.438/.273
After struggling horribly early in the season, Howard hit .273/.356/.593 after May 15th to make his slashes respectable. Howard has game-changing power — when he is ‘on’. If he played for an AL team he would be a DH (a la David Ortiz) as he is a terrible defender (he committed 18 errors at first base).

ADVANTAGE: Philadelphia

Second Base

Blake DeWitt, LA… regular season: .264/.344/.383… playoffs: .273/.273/.455
Played the hot corner for a good portion of the season due to injury problems, but was finally sent to Triple-A due to his offensive struggles. With the acquisition of Casey Blake, DeWitt was moved to second base and eventually recalled to play in The Show. As the numbers convey, he wasn’t ready for prime time.

Chase Utley, PHI… regular season: .292/.380/.535… playoffs: .133/.235/.200
Utley had a MONSTER start to the 2008 campaign, and then suddenly his power all but disappeared. As the year progressed, rumors circulated that he suffered a hip injury early in the season and should have been rested long ago. Nonetheless, he was still the best second baseman in the league.

ADVANTAGE: Philadelphia

Third Base

Casey Blake, LA… regular season: .251/.313/.460… playoffs: .273/.333/.273
Blake was a needed improvement over DeWitt at third base, but he struggled late in the year (he put up .220/.297/.415 in September) and many have wondered whether a two-month rental was worth surrendering catching prospect Carlos Santana.

Pedro Feliz, PHI… regular season: .249/.302/.402… playoffs: .231/.231/.308
Umm, the numbers say it all. Feliz is a warm body manning the hot corner.

ADVANTAGE: None… eenie, meenie, minie, mo.

Shortstop

Rafael Furcal, LA… regular season: .357/.439/.573… playoffs: .333/.467/.333
Furcal returned to play late in the season after recovering from a lower back injury that kept him out of action for most of the season. He played as if unconscious in the spring… but then did not play again until September 24th (not even a minor league rehab assignment). What can Joe Torre and the Dodgers reasonably expect from a guy who had only nine at-bats after May 5th?

Jimmy Rollins, PHI… regular season: .277/.349/.437… playoffs: .375/.412/.688
His numbers were down significantly from his MVP season of 2008, but that is almost certainly due to the serious ankle sprain he suffered in mid-April. Of course, you would have thought that the ankle problem would have slowed him on the base paths but that didn’t happen (47 steals in 50 attempts), so who really knows how to explain his offensive slip?

ADVANTAGE: Philadelphia

Left Field

Manny Ramirez, LA… regular season (NL stats): .396/.489/.743… playoffs: .500/.643/1.100
Manny has not been Manny since moving to the west coast… he cannot afford to be, he’s playing for a contract after forcing the Red Sox and Dodgers to eschew his 2009 and 2010 options (at $20 MM per season). Nope, Manny has been more like Superman since arriving in Los Angeles.

Pat Burrell, PHI… regular season: .250/.367/.507… playoffs: .250/.357/.750
Burrell started the season well but tailed off significantly once the calendar turned to July (he had a .230 batting average and .444 slugging percentage after July 1st).

ADVANTAGE: Los Angeles

Center Field

Matt Kemp, LA… regular season: .290/.340/.459… playoffs: .254/.154/.308
Started the season in right field but converted to center field due to the ineffectiveness of off-season acquisitions Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones.

Shane Victorino, PHI… regular season: .293/.352/.447… playoffs: .357/.471/.786
Victorino improved at almost every aspect of the game in 2008… he’s a good young player who has a smallish price tag for the Phils, so you’ll be seeing him in the outfield at Citizen’s Bank Park for the next several seasons.

ADVANTAGE: Philadelphia

Right Field

Andre Ethier, LA… regular season: .305/.375/.510… playoffs: .100/.357/.100
Was “All-World” in the second half, especially September (.462/.557/.692), so lots was expected of him in the playoffs… maybe the post-season pressure got to the youngster.

Jayson Werth, PHI… regular season: .273/.363/.498… playoffs: .313/.313/.813
Sat on the bench for much of the season watching Geoff Jenkins stink it up, but he often made the most of his chances when he got them. Witness, the NLDS. He gets on base consistently, shows flashes of power, and play pretty good defense.

ADVANTAGE: Philadelphia

Starting Rotation

Los Angeles

Derek Lowe: 14-11, 3.24 ERA, 211 IP, 136 ERA+
Chad Billingsley: 16-10, 3.14 ERA, 200.2 IP, 141 ERA+
Hiroki Kuroda: 9-10, 3.73 ERA, 183.1 IP, 119 ERA+
Greg Maddux: 8-13, 4.22 ERA, 194 IP, 87 ERA+

Combined playoffs: 3-0, 1.42, 19 IP, 3 ER, 18 H, 4 BB, 17 K

Derek Lowe had an excellent second half (a 2.38 ERA) and has proven his mettle in the post-season… as good as Lowe has been, Billingsley is even better and likely will emerge as the staff’s true ace next season… Kuroda has been inconsistent, but has displayed flashes of brilliance on occasion… Maddux is not the pitcher he was three or four years ago, let alone ten years ago.

Philadelphia

Cole Hamels: 14-10, 3.09 ERA, 227.1 IP, 145 ERA+
Jamie Moyer: 16-7, 3.71 ERA, 196.1 IP, 120 ERA+
Brett Myers: 10-13, 4.55 ERA, 190 IP, 98 ERA+
Joe Blanton: 4-0, 4.20 ERA, 70.2 IP, 106 ERA+

Combined playoffs: 3-1, 1.80, 25 IP, 5 ER, 13 H, 7 BB, 23 K

Hamels is a fine young pitcher who is just coming into his prime… Moyer is forty-five years old, but the crafty southpaw who was once dealt by the Red Sox in exchange for Darren Bragg (yikes!) won sixteen games and could drive the Dodgers batty… Myers was absolutely brutal in the first half of the season, but was one of the best pitchers in the league over the second half… Blanton is steady but unspectacular — kinda what you might expect from a fourth starter.

ADVANTAGE: Los Angeles

Bullpen

Los Angeles

Joe Beimel 5-1, 2.02 ERA, 49 IP, 219 ERA+
Jonathan Broxton 3-5, 3.13 ERA, 69 IP, 141 ERA+
Clayton Kershaw 5-5, 4.26 ERA, 107.2 IP, 104 ERA+
Chan-Ho Park 4-4, 3.40 ERA, 95.1 IP, 130 ERA+
Takashi Saito 4-4, 2.49 ERA, 47 IP, 178 ERA+
Cory Wade 2-1, 2.27 ERA, 71.1 IP, 195 ERA+

Combined playoffs: 0-0, 3.38, 8 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K

The Dodgers have an outstanding bullpen when their closer, Saito, is pitching well and other relievers can be slotted as designed. But Saito has been brutal as of late. After his only outing in the NLDS (three hits, two earned runs, no batters retired), he wondered aloud whether Joe Torre would utilize his services AT ALL for the remainder of the season. Suffice it to say that his confidence is not very high at this point in time… expect Broxton to close and the other relievers to be juggled to fill in the gaps.

Philadelphia

Brad Lidge: 2-0, 41 saves, 1.95 ERA, 69.1 IP, 229 ERA+
Ryan Madson: 4-2, 3.05 ERA, 82.2 IP, 147 ERA+
JC Romero: 4-4, 2.75 ERA, 59 IP, 163 ERA+
Chad Durbin: 5-4, 2.87 ERA, 87.2 IP, 155 ERA+
JA Happ: 1-0, 3.69 ERA, 31.2 IP, 121 ERA+
Scott Eyre: 3-0, 1.88 ERA, 14.1 IP, 237 ERA+

Combined playoffs: 0-0, 3.60, 2 Saves, 10 IP, 4 ER, 13 H, 3 BB, 9 K

Lidge was 41-for-41 in save attempts during the regular season and closed out both his save ops in the Division Series… Madson has evolved from a decent middle reliever who spotted his pitches to a hard-throwing (95 mph) set-up man with a heckuva changeup (he allowed one earned run in fourteen innings in September, with 17 Ks)… Romero (a southpaw) is typically employed against left-handed hitters but he is also capable of retiring the occasional right-handed hitter, too… Durbin may have had a career year, nonetheless he had an outstanding season as the 6th / 7th inning set-up man… Happ is a rookie left-hander who gets plenty of strikeouts, but walks too many opposing hitters… Eyre is a lefty specialist, like Romero, who can be extraordinary when he is ‘on’.

ADVANTAGE: Philadelphia

————————————

Series Prediction:

I love LA’s starting rotation.

Typically, the Dodgers have the advantage in the bullpen, but even in the best of times their relievers would be only a whisker better than the Phillies. Taking Saito’s troubles into consideration, the ‘pen advantage goes to Philadelphia.

The Pennsylvanians have an advantage at five of the eight positional players… the Californians have the advantage at two positions… there is one draw.

Back in June, it felt like a World Series preview when the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies faced off in inter-league play… I believe the Phillies will hold up their end of the bargain — in six games.

Topics: Around Baseball |

One Response to “Around Baseball: NLCS Matchup Is Set — Los Angeles v Philadelphia”

Allan Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 12:36 am
Whoever wins between the Dodgers and Phillies will get crushed by whoever wins between the Red Sox and the Rays.