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ALCS Preview: Tonight’s Pitching Matchup — Lester vs Garza
By Administrator | October 13, 2008
Jon Lester was 16-6, 3.21 this season… the Red Sox were 22-11 in games he started. He was 11-1, 2.45, in games at Fenway Park.
In the ALDS, he was 1-0, 0.00, against the Angels… in fourteen innings pitched, he allowed just one unearned run on ten hits and three walks while striking out eleven hitters.
He was 3-0 against the Rays this season… with a 0.90 ERA. THAT is not a typo — 0.90! He pitched twenty innings, allowing only two runs on eighteen hits and six walks. He struck out nineteen Tampa batters. He pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings in his last outing against the Rays on September 8th.
Of note, Tampa Bay was only one-game-over-.500 against lefties this season… they hit nearly twenty points lower (as a team) against lefties than they did against righties.
In his career, Lester has pitched pretty well against most of the Tampa lineup, although the BIG TWO have fared better than the rest. He has held Carl Crawford to a .214 average (3-for-14), BJ Upton to a .222 average (4-for-18, 1 HR, 2 RBI), and Akinori Iwamura to a .235 average (4-for-17, 1 HR, 3 RBI)… Evan Longoria has hit .333 (2-for-6) and Carlos Pena has hit .313 (5-for-16, 2 HR, 6 RBI).
Matt Garza was 11-10, 3.70, in 2008… the Rays were only 14-16 in games he started. He was a not-so-robust 4-6, 4.53, in games away from The Trop.
He was 0-1, 7.50 against Chicago in the ALDS. In one start, he allowed five runs on seven hits and four walks over six innings.
He was 1-1, 4.50, against the Red Sox this season. In twenty-two innings pitched, he allowed eleven earned runs on twenty-one hits and seven walks… he struck out ten Red Sox hitters.
While Jacoby Ellsbury has struggled in the last several games, he has hit .462 (6-for-13) against the Rays righty… this may explain why Terryt Francona has left him in tonight’s lineup despite his recent funk. JD Drew is hitting .400 against him (2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI). On the other end of the spectrum, several Sox hitters have REALLY scuffled against Garza — Dustin Pedroia has hit only .214 (3-for-14), David Ortiz has hit .200 (2-for-10, 2 HR, 3 RBI), and Kevin Youkilis has hit an abysmal .083 (1-for-12).
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Game 3 Prediction:
The Red Sox are home… that means Lester will be lights out and the offense will kick into over-drive.
I expect this one may get ugly quickly — a blowout to welcome the Sox back to ‘the friendly confines’ of Fenway Park. Lester is nearly unhittable at home… he is 2-0, 0.45, in his last three starts. Garza is not so good on the road… he is 0-1, 6.51 over his last three outings.
Home is where the heart is. Look for Big Papi and Youk to break out of their struggles against the Rays righty at Fenway — they’ll each go deep today. Garza will prove to be the hair of the dog for the Sox — he’ll help get rid of any residual hangover from Saturday night’s extra-inning affair.
Red Sox-8, Rays-2.
Topics: MLB Playoffs, Sox Games, Sox Players |
