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World Series Preview: Phillies In Six
By Administrator | October 22, 2008
I know, I know. I am going against the conventional wisdom, but the conventional wisdom said the Red Sox would lose to the Los Angeles Angels… and then it said that the Red Sox would beat the Rays. So much for conventional wisdom.
I know the Rays have home-field advantage thanks to the AL’s win in the ASG… I know the Rays had the best home-field record in the major leagues (although you may not know that the Phillies had the best road record in the NL)… I know the Rays are 10-5 all-time against the Phillies…
…but I still like the Phillies.
Reasons For My Prediction
The Red Sox lost the ALCS for a couple of reasons:
1) They were injured and performing well below their capacity… injuries to third baseman Mike Lowell and staff ace Josh Beckett sapped the Red Sox of the reigning World Series MVP and one of the best post-game pitchers of this or any generation.
Add the fact David Ortiz continued to be at less than 100% due to his wrist injury.
Philadelphia enters the World Series with all hands on deck… and healthy.
2) The Sox took too long to adjust to BJ Upton’s strength… by the end of the ALCS, the Sox had learned that the best way to attack Upton is with off-speed pitches — low and away.
The Phillies watched the ALCS… they took notes… they will not challenge Upton inside with fastballs, get beat, and then hit the repeat button (as the Sox pitchers did). Upton almost certainly find himself neutralized.
The Rays don’t fare well against southpaws:
As noted during my ALCS previews, the Rays hit 20 points lower and score a run a game less against southpaws. Tampa Bay will face lefties Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer twice apiece in the World Series (assuming the Series goes at least six games).
In my opinion, THAT spells doom for the Rays.
I think the Phillies have a significant advantage in the bullpen… with the emergence of David Price in the Tampa Bay bullpen the advantage is lessened, but it is significant nonetheless.
Schedule
Game 1: Phillies (Hamels, 14-10, 3.09) at Rays (Kazmir, 12-8, 3.49) 10/22, 8:00 PM ET
Game 2: Phillies (Myers, 10-13, 4.55) at Rays (Shields, 14-8, 3.56) 10/23, 8:00 PM ET
Game 3: Rays (Garza, 11-9, 3.70) at Phillies (Moyer, 16-7, 3.71) 10/25, 8:00 PM ET
Game 4: Rays (Sonnanstine, 13-9, 4.38) at Phillies (Blanton, 9-12, 4.69) 10/26, 8:00 PM ET
Game 5: Rays at Phillies 10/27, 8:00 PM ET *if necessary
Game 6: Phillies at Rays 10/29, 8:00 PM ET *if necessary
Game 7: Phillies at Rays 10/30, 8:00 PM ET *if necessary
Topics: MLB Playoffs |
