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Projo Makes Compelling Case That Varitek Needs To Re-Think His Contract Demands
By Administrator | January 4, 2009
Providence Journal reporter Daniel Barbarisi makes a compelling case in tomorrow’s edition that the time has come for Jason Varitek and agent Scott Boras to re-think their negotiation strategy.
While it seems obvious that the Red Sox want him back and that the team captain wants to return, it seems equally obvious that the Sox are not going to give him a two-year deal at anything close to $10 million a year. At this point, it also seems obvious that no other team is going to give him his asking price AND give the Red Sox the draft picks they would have to surrender.
Time is ticking. At some point, the Red Sox are going to have to see Jason’s name on a contract or they are going to have to go in a different direction… the club can’t afford to go to Fort Myers with Josh Bard and Greg Zaun as their catchers. At some point they’re going to have to have ‘Tek under contract or pull the trigger on a deal.
I firmly believe that the club will definitely turn the page on re-signing Jason on the day they have to part with prospects in a trade. If Jason allows Boras to continue jerking the team around, I believe he will seal his own fate.
The Red Sox modus operandi under this ownership group has demonstrated that they are willing to make the hard decisions on free agents… Exhibit 1: Johnny Damon; Exhibit 2: Derek Lowe; Exhibit 3: Pedro Martinez.
Will ‘Tek become Exhibit 4?
If he wants to come back to Boston, he and Boras are going to have to set their sights MUCH lower… and if he wants to come back to Boston I believe he had better make concessions soon. John Henry and Theo Epstein do not overpay players for sentimental reasons… and as they just demonstrated in the Teixeira negotiations, they will not pay a player more than the value THEY place on his services.
This is one time when the player is worth more to his old team than he is worth to a new team. Boras appears to be playing a waiting game, and this is a game he seems destined to lose. When and if the Red Sox turn the page, it seems likely that ‘Tek will be forced to take a one-year deal elsewhere — at significantly less money than the Red Sox are likely willing to give him.
The problem is, Boras has painted himself into a corner. He initially demanded a four-year deal worth $40 million for his client… he pointed to the contract signed by Jorge Posada last winter — a catcher who had just completed an extraordinary season offensively — and told his client he would get him a deal in that neighborhood. Problem is: the Red Sox aren’t the Yankees… they aren’t nearly as foolish or as cavalier as the folks in the Bronx. New York may have been bullied (by the media, the fans, and the ballplayer) into an embarrassingly laughable deal with Posada, but that does not mean the Red Sox were going to be bullied into a similarly foolish deal with Varitek.
Around baseball, while Varitek is still considered a savant behind the plate in terms of calling a game and cultivating young pitchers, he is viewed as a liability in terms of throwing out baserunners and with a bat in his hands.
Examining the statistics and salaries for catchers over the last two seasons, Barbarisi contends that, at $10 million annually, a team would be paying Varitek twice as much as paid to other catchers with equivalent production… and he argues that other, more economical options exist on the free-agent market that could replicate Varitek’s (offensive) production.
According to Barbarisi, major league teams got a .258 average, with 15 home runs, 73 rbi and 75 runs scored from the catching position in 2008. Comparing ‘Tek to the top 30 catchers (in terms of games played), he asserts that Jason is “a distinctly average catcher”, better than something less than half of the primary catchers in the majors (who averaged 119 games / 394 at-bats, a .259 average, 11 HR, and 53 rbi). In 2008, Varitek hit .220, with 13 HR and 42 RBI.
He compiled a .313 on-base percentage and a .359 slugging percentage - both below the average for the comparison group. His 122 strikeouts were almost twice as many as the average.
His .996 fielding percentage ranked him among the best in the league at avoiding errors, but his rate of throwing out would-be base stealers — 16 caught stealing, 56 steals — ranks him as below average in the group.
Barbarisi poses a question: who does Varitek most-closely resemble statistically and what have they been paid? He asserts the most comparable players last season were KC’s John Buck, Toronto’s Rod Barajas, Philadelphia’s Carlos Ruiz, Texas’ Gerald Laird (now in Detroit), and NY Mets’ Brian Schneider. Within this group, Barbarisi says that Varitek’s salary demands are dramatically higher than what the others earned last season.
Their salaries in 2008? Buck made $2.2 million… Barajas earned $1.2 million (and will make $2.5 million in 2009)… Laird earned $1.6 million… Schneider was paid $4.9 million. (Ruiz just completed his rookie year and made just over the league minimum, so for the sake of this comparison he will be set aside).
Another interesting comparable is 37-year-old free agent Ivan Rodriguez, who is considered one of the best defensive catchers in the history of the game. He had a year very similar to Varitek in 2008 and is likewise represented by Boras. Not coincidentally, he is drawing very little interest in the free-agent market due to his agent’s laughable contract demands.
Barbarisi argues that the best free-agent comparable for Varitek is former Blue Jays catcher Gregg Zaun, who made $3.75 million in 2008.
Towards the end of the article, Barbarisi concludes: “(N)one of this takes into account Varitek’s unmatched preparation, his clubhouse leadership, his veteran presence or his meaning to the fan base. He is the team captain, and the C on his jersey was hard-earned over 11 years in Boston. While less quantifiable, that is certainly worth something in dollar terms, and both Boras and the Red Sox know this.”
The writer contends that veteran players producing at Varitek’s level were generally paid between $2 million to $5 million in 2008 (with the notable exception of Rodriguez). He concludes: “If Varitek’s price were to drop that low, the Red Sox would probably be happy to bring him back for at least two more years. But if Varitek and Boras stick to their initial demands, the Red Sox will probably go another way, and end up with the same production for half the cost”.
(NOTE: Based on the aforementioned intangibles, I place Jason’s value at closer to $7 - $7.5 million annually and believe a deal can, and should, be struck at two-years, $15 million)
Topics: Sox Front Office, Sox Players |
