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What Might We See From The Red Sox During This Weeks’ Winter Meetings?
By Administrator | December 7, 2009
What are you expecting to see from the Red Sox during this week’s winter meetings? Will they be VERY active or will they simply spend the week laying the foundation for what’s to come later this winter?
And what impact will the NY Yankees announcement that they will be cutting payroll in 2010 have on the decisions being made by agents / players and other teams?
Here is my guess as to how the week may unfold:
I think the Red Sox want to get a LOT done, but I wonder whether some of the key free agents are going to be keen on making commitments, especially in the wake of the Yankees pronouncement that they need to shave payroll. My guess is that no one necessarily believes NY GM Brian Cashman when he suggests that re-signing Johnny Damon may be the biggest objective he has with respect to this year’s free agent class. Remember, last year the Yanks showed no interest in 1B Mark Teixeira until it seemed he was about to sign with the Red Sox… the Evil Empire then belatedly stepped in and stole him out from under the Red Sox.
Could the Yankees be hoping Jason Bay signs with someone, so that they could then step in and offer Matt Holliday a boatload of cash — thereby leaving the Red Sox with neither of their primary left field candidates? I suspect the Yankees are playing possum…
If the Yankees are OUT on the big money free agents, there will only be a couple of big market teams vying for the services of Bay and Holliday due to their financial demands - that means Bay will feel the pressure to take a deal like the one he just turned down from the Red Sox. If the Yankees are out on Holliday, it is a near-certainty that agent Scott Boras will not get the money or the years he expects to get for his prize outfielder… therefore, Holliday might have to “settle” for something in the order of $17-$18 million annually.
If THAT happens the Sox may decide to turn away from Bay and go after Holliday, who is reportedly favored over Bay by some decision-makers in the Boston front office… THAT would mean Bay might find himself looking at a four year contract for a lot less money per year, wishing he’d taken the Sox offer. He cannot afford to overplay his hand… if the Red Sox walk away from him he loses money.
Bay can’t depend on Seattle to drive his salary. The M’s already have Ichiro Suzuki under contract for big bucks and need to negotiate a long-term deal with “King” Felix Hernandez. The Seattle market will not enable them to carry three contracts at $15-million-plus per year. The Mets are reportedly leary of Bay’s defense and won’t go four years at $15 million annually. The Los Angeles Angels will not bid against themselves. In an effort to get an extra year and a couple million dollars more per year, Bay could end up costing himself $5 - $10 million over four years.
The Mets want to spend on pitching and will press hard to get John Lackey under contract… but my guess is that the Red Sox will want to talk to him as well. In fact, I think he is the first player they’ll pursue… which leads me into one potential scenario for the week ahead.
In this scenario, the Sox front office will return from Indianapolis with a very different roster.
First, I think they will sign Lackey him to a contract quite similar to the one they offered to Bay. The acquisition of Lackey will ultimately end the pursuit of Bay because the club will have to spend similar money in the matter of months to sign Josh Beckett to an extension (otherwise Beckett will play out his contract and enter free agency — just like Bay did this year).
Next, the Sox will put a full-court press on San Diego to obtain Adrian Gonzalez. The Sox will offer a package including Clay Buchholz, Manny Delcarmen (who the Padres will insist on because they’ll also try to deal closer Heath Bell this week), Lars Anderson and Ryan Westmoreland. It is a package new Padres GM Jed Hoyer will be loathe to turn down as he doesn’t want to overplay his hand (as Toronto has thus far done with Roy Halladay).
The Sox will then seek to add another starting pitcher and two relievers (to replace Delcarmen and BIlly Wagner). Rich Harden will be the preferred starting pitcher, but I think he’ll get more years and more money from someone else. Ditto Ben Sheets. So my guess is they will sign LHP Erik Bedard and / or RHP Justin Duchscherer for the rotation. In the bullpen, I think they will target RHP Kiko Calero and LHP Will Ohman… depending on the medical reports they might decide to take a flier on someone like JJ Putz (the former Mariner who will look for but not receive a closer’s job this winter).
They will leave Indianapolis without the other half of their left field platoon, but that won’t be a major concern as there will be several very good outfielders looking for a contract in late January, hoping they will still be needed in a big league uniform. I still think they may end up with Marcus Thames as Jeremy Hermida’s platoon mate.
The odd man out in all of this? Sadly, it’s Mike Lowell.
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NOTE: I’m not necessarily an advocate of the approach I have just laid out. I would still prefer to sign Lackey and hold onto Buchholz, sign Bay, and leave Youkilis at first base with Lowell at third base. It is an approach predicated on pitching and defense and clubhouse chemistry — and some measure of sanity with respect to payroll.
But after the club’s unceremonious ouster from the post-season — in large part due to the failure of the offense — I think Theo & Company will feel the need to get a big bat (Gonzalez).
And if the club is determined to trade Buchholz for either Gonzalez or Halladay, I unequivocally support trading him for Gonzalez as opposed to Halladay (who, after several years of 200+ IP and previous arm trouble, is one away pitch from never pitching again).
Topics: Sox Front Office, Sox Players, SoxTransactions |
