Guest Article: Sign Jason Bay To A One-Year Contract |

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« This Day In Red Sox History: December 23, 1986 | Home | Lowell Addresses Thumb Injury »

Guest Article: Sign Jason Bay To A One-Year Contract

By Administrator | December 23, 2009

by Lawrence Bodin

The current situation surrounding the signing of Jason Bay, as best that I can piece together from the differing reports on the Internet and the newspapers, is the following:

The Red Sox have cooled to the idea of signing Jason Bay for 4 years at $15 million a year. As a matter of fact, he may be fourth or fifth on their priority pecking order behind Adrian Gonzalez, Adrian Beltre, Matt Holliday and Miguel Cabrera (the Red Sox preference list may not be in the order just stated).

The Mets have offered Bay a 4 year, $16 million a year contract; however, one news source noted that the Mets contract may be backloaded so that its present value may be less than the Red Sox offer.

To the best of my knowledge, no other major league team has stepped forward and offered Bay any more than either the Red Sox offer or the Mets offer.

There may be some injury risk to Bay at the end of a long contract. As such, teams are being very cautious in making an offer to Bay.

Bay does not want to play for the Mets.

The overall economy is weak. Players may get less this year than last year or next year for the same degree of competency. This may not be the ideal year to seek a multiyear, high priced contract.

I, therefore, believe that Bay is going to have great difficulty in getting a 5 year, $15+ million dollar contract. Further, he believes that he is worth more than what the Red Sox or Mets are offering.

The Red Sox (and the Yankees) can take advantage of this situation by offering Bay a one year, $16 million contract. Obviously, this contract is quite advantageous to the Red Sox for the following reasons:

They reduce their risk.

If Bay works out, they can try to resign Bay under a longer contract and Bay can become their DH. I am assuming that this is David Ortiz’s last year in Boston.

Bay should work hard to improve his performance.

If Bay does not work out, the Red Sox will receive 2 draft choices.

The disadvantage of this approach is that if Bay works out, his price will increase for the contract beginning in 2011.

Bay will believe that the one year contract is a disappointment in that it is not long term and Bay is forced to assume some of the risk because he may lose out if he has a poor season. And, of course, there is always the risk of injury. However, if he does have a good season, he will earn more over the next 5 years than if he signs a contract in 2010. Bay’s decision depends on how confident Bay is in his decision to be a productive player in 2010.

JASON, ARE YOU CONFIDENT THAT YOU ARE GOING TO BE A PRODUCTIVE PLAYER IN 2010? ARE YOU WILLING TO INVEST IN YOUR FUTURE? ARE YOU WILLING TO ASSUME A LITTLE RISK.

As analyzed above, the Red Sox position on signing Bay is quite simple – offer Bay a one year contract at $16 million. The answer to this issue from Bay’s standpoint is more complex. He has to weigh “the bird in the hand” (or the $60 million dollar contract) against the increased risk and the possibility of earning more by signing a one year contract.

My recommendation to Jason is the following:

SIGN THE ONE YEAR CONTRACT FROM THE RED SOX AND PROVE TO US AND THE BASEBALL WORLD THAT YOU ARE WORTH GETTING THE BIG CONTRACT.

Topics: Sox Front Office, Sox Players |

One Response to “Guest Article: Sign Jason Bay To A One-Year Contract”

Chris Says:
December 23rd, 2009 at 8:52 pm
That is the silliest article! Bay has waited years for this opportunity. He has proved his worth. He hits 30 HR’s and 100+ RBI’s, but is not and will never be a .300 hitter. He wants and deserves a 4 to 5 year contract…and will get it at $15+M per year. Good luck JBay!!